Chalk walks? Or chalk balks?
We don’t need to wade into the discourse about the impact NIL is having on this NCAA Tournament. We have games to bet.
But trends do matter and we always take note, and the reality is that even the teams that are viewed as some of the major underdogs left in this dance – Tennessee and Texas – have unreal budgets, they have players who were at the pinnacle of 2025 “salary” and they have future NBA lottery picks in their current employ. Cinderellas, they ain’t. Sorry, that doesn’t qualify.
With this Sweet Sixteen slate of games, anything is possible. Any combination of these outcomes wouldn’t shock us. Since we are nearing the end of our inventory, we’ll tell what we’re thinking on all eight games and make it clear if this is something we are still monitoring for now (a lean) or something we have played. As always, the closer you wait until tip time to get in, the worse price you will likely end up paying.
Texas vs. Purdue Over 148.5 (-110) Bet365
Texas has been the biggest surprise of the tournament so far, while the Boilermakers have played great basketball over the last six games. Purdue has one of the best offenses in the country and has scored 183 points in its two NCAA Tournament matchups so far. This was the offense we expected from them down the stretch during the regular season.
Texas’ games cleared this total in 13 of 18 during conference play, and the Longhorns scored 80-plus points in five of their last seven conference games during the regular season. Neither one of these teams want to slow things down. Both teams are shooting north of 74 percent from the stripe, which could be crucial in a matchup like this, where we could see a number of fouls in the final minute to help push over the number.
Nebraska Moneyline (-128) FanDuel
Not many people were expecting these teams to face off for a third time this season in the NCAA Tournament. They split during the regular season and Nebraska almost choked away a big lead late in its second matchup with the Hawkeyes, but the Cornhuskers are in a good spot for me here. When these two last faced off, Nebraska held Bennett Stirtz to 11 points, which was the lowest scoring output we saw from him in conference play. Stirtz wasn’t able to get it going in Iowa’s upset win over Florida, but Tavion Banks, Alvaro Folgueiras and Cooper Koch combined to go 7 of 12 from beyond the arc, which proved to be the difference.
That hot shooting shouldn’t continue in this Sweet Sixteen matchup. Nobody left in this tournament is better defending the three than Nebraska: Opponents shot 30.1 percent from beyond the arc against the Cornhuskers this season, which ranked eighth in the country.
Arizona to Go On a 10-0 Run (+115) FanDuel
Arizona Team Total Over 87.5 (-108) FanDuel
We have to have some fun with one of our picks. Being able to bet the kill shot is exciting because you never know when it could come. Arkansas is one of the best scoring offenses in the country, and that scares you with a play like this. Defense has been a major issue however, as the Razorbacks are allowing 80.3 points per game, which ranks 325th in the nation. Arizona can get after it defensively and has no issue scoring (averaging 86.1 points per game).
The Wildcats have gone on a 10-0 run in six of their last eight games. They’re the far better defensive team in this matchup and Tommy Lloyd should have them ready to go on both ends of the court. The most comparable matchup that we’ve seen for Arizona this season was Alabama back in December, and they scored 96 points and had multiple kill-shot runs.
St. John’s/Duke – Under 142.5 (-115, BetMGM)
Rick Pitino must have been having flashbacks to last spring over the weekend. The Red Storm couldn’t hit a shot for most of the afternoon. It was beyond ugly. And Duke is still dealing with some injuries and working through some rotations and its offense hasn’t exactly been a 40-minute monster. This game screams “throwback.”
We aren’t going to get any pace here – Duke is 281st in the country and St. John’s is going to have to work to get open looks and make anything happen. Both teams play defense like a demon and we know the Johnnies will defend every inbounds pass like their lives depend on it. St. John’s is under in 11 of its last 12 games and this is the time of year when kids (or young adults these days, I suppose) tend to get tight. Duke is under in four of its last six. We’ve got the No. 1 defense in the country vs. the No. 8 defense. We’re not going to overthink this matchup.
Alabama/Michigan – Over 174.5 (-114, BetRivers) LEAN
This number is kind of insane. We totally get that … But ain’t no way we can go under here. And Michigan laying double-digit points at a neutral site against a team that can run-and-gun like Alabama is just a little too steep for us. So if we are going to do anything, it’s hold our nose, understand that what Alabama did to Texas Tech on Sunday is not the norm and won’t happen again, and embrace the over.
Just lean into the fact that both these teams can score 85 points in a track meet. When the total was set between 175-181 this season, Alabama was 9-3-1 to the over. The Wolverines defense has slipped a bit lately; they are over in three straight and they did let Howard and Purdue drop 80 each on them recently.
Michigan State/UConn – Michigan State ML (+110, everywhere)
We are most aligned on this pick. We believe the wrong team is favored here, and the market has yet to correct. Maybe it won’t. UConn shot the ball vs. UCLA, a meh Big 10 team, better than it has in a long time. And it was still a tough slog for the Huskies, and if not for Mick Cronin’s chastising officials, maybe that game is even closer.
Tom Izzo’s bunch has flown under the radar, but they are back to their iron-fist defensive ways and we think their point guard can control this game. The Big East was poor; this is not a vintage UConn squad and we need to see Alex Karaban flash last season’s form two games in a row before we believe it. Vegas has got it wrong with the Huskies all season long — UConn is 14-22 ATS as a favorite this season, and if you think it’s a pro-Huskies crowd in DC for this one, well, UConn is 4-13 ATS as a home favorite this season. Not only don’t we think they cover here, we don’t think they advance.
Tennessee/Iowa State – Tennessee ML (+165, BetMGM)
You have to take a shot from time to time. Yeah, Hofstra let us down last week, but the Vols have the ingredients necessary for an upset here. Iowa State is almost certainly going to be without its top player – Joshua Jefferson – for this game. Tennessee got the opportunity to scout what that looked like over the weekend and make adjustments.
The Vols are athletic enough to match up here, as they have a dominant big man playing his best ball and bigs who can help off the bench. Iowa State wants to pressure like mad, but we are huge Ja’Kobi Gillespie guys around here and he is proven and unflappable and he lives for buzzer beaters.
Both of these teams are hot, and both are battle tested, but the Vols have the inside/outside thing going, they have a tourney-proven coach and some lower-seeded team is going to make a little noise this weekend. Did we jump them at +800 to reach the Final Four? Yup.
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