The second full day of the 2026 NCAA Tournament is upon us. Friday should pack lots of action as always. Will any favorites fall? Will there be upsets? Or will the chalk advance?
As usual, I have the answers to all the pertinent questions, not just who will win but by how much. Here are my picks against the spread for all 16 of Friday’s first-round games.
No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 10 Santa Clara
Seth’s Analysis
This is the best team that Herb Sendek has coached during his 10 years at Santa Clara. It’s a young squad, with just four upperclassmen in the nine-man rotation, but the Broncos beat Saint Mary’s twice and reached the finals of the West Coast Conference tournament. They push the tempo and launch three-pointers, and while that has produced 87.2 points per game (the fifth-highest average in the nation), Santa Clara can be a little too permissive on defense. It also ranks 359th nationally in offensive free throw rate, per KenPom. Keep your eye on 6-foot-9 freshman forward Allen Graves, who according to our Jonathan Wasserman could be the next Santa Clara NBA Draft pick. Sendek spent four seasons as an assistant at Kentucky, so it would be full circle if he could deal a first-round defeat to a Wildcats squad that lost six of its last 10 games. When Kentucky has played well, it has dominated teams inside, but the Broncos ranked 33rd in height on KenPom and have a formidable rim protector in 7-foot-1 sophomore center Bukky Oboye.
No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 12 Akron
Seth’s Analysis
It took the Red Raiders a few games to feel the effects of losing J.T. Toppin, but they are coming into the NCAA Tournament on a three-game losing streak. Now there is concern about sophomore point guard Christian Anderson, who suffered a mild groin injury during the Big 12 tournament loss to Iowa State. Texas Tech coach Grant McCasland said Anderson should be good to go, but that is still not the juju you want to have going up against a solid Akron squad that is playing in its third consecutive NCAA Tournament. The Zips lost just one game in the MAC, they are experienced (the top five players are seniors, led by 5-foot-11 guard Tavari Johnson, who averages 20.1 points and 5.0 assists per game), and they love to get out and score (88.4 points per game). We almost always get at least one 12-5 upset, and this is a likely spot for that to happen. Even if it doesn’t, this is a very generous point spread.
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 Long Island University
Seth’s Analysis
Fins up! The Sharks of LIU have provided some great theater this season even beyond their now-iconic fan free throw routine. Coached by legendary NBA (and former DePaul) point guard Rod Strickland, the Sharks won the NEC by three games and captured the tourney title with a 79-70 win over Mercyhurst. Unfortunately, LIU showed during the season that when it plays the big boys, it comes up quite small, having lost to Illinois by 40 points back in November. I don’t think the Wildcats are going to be any more merciful. Arizona has been not only one of the best teams in the country this season, but also the most consistent, and unlike some of the other top contenders they have had no injury issues down the stretch. Arizona ran through a brutal gauntlet to get by Iowa State and Houston in the Big 12 tournament, but that ended on Saturday, so by the time this tips off the Cats will have had six days to recover and regenerate.
No. 3 Virginia vs. No. 14 Wright State
Seth’s Analysis
Virginia has had an impressive season, but this is quite a large point spread. Wright State won the Horizon League regular season by two games and proved during the conference tournament that it can win playing different styles. The Raiders beat Northern Kentucky 103-90 in the semifinals and fought Detroit Mercy to a 66-63 decision in the championship. This is a young team (six of the top seven scorers are freshmen and sophomores) and they feature 6-foot-1 sophomore guard T.J. Burch, who was named the league’s efensive Player of the Year. Under first-year coach Ryan Odom, the Cavs don’t play the same grinding style they did under Tony Bennett, but they still rank No. 16 on KenPom in adjusted defensive efficiency and 10th in offensive rebound percentage. They boast an elite front line in 6-foot-9 freshman forward Thies de Ridder and 7-foot senior center Ugona Onyenso, who ranked second nationally in blocks at 6.3 per game. Virginia should win the game, but like I said, this spread is too big.
No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 15 Tennessee State
Seth’s Analysis
The Cyclones didn’t win the Big 12 tournament, but they sure went down fighting. Their 82-80 loss to Arizona in the semifinal might have been the most entertaining game of the entire season. Their X factor all season has been 6-foot-8 junior forward Milan Momcilovic, who had 28 points on 8 of 14 three-point shooting after scoring just five points in an easy win over Texas Tech. Iowa State will need the former version of Moncilovic to get to Indianapolis, but the Cyclones shouldn’t have too much problem in this one regardless. The Tigers drilled 16 three-pointers in the OVC championship win over Morehead State, but it’s hard to imagine the Cyclones allowing that to happen. Both these teams also depend on turning opponents over, and though Iowa State can get a little too careless with the ball at times, I doubt the Tigers will show any more defensive pressure than Iowa State has seen in the Big 12.
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 13 Hofstra
Seth’s Analysis
Most every NCAA Tournament has at least one 13-over-4 upset, and I picked the Pride as my shocker even before we learned that the Crimson Tide would be without 6-foot-1 junior guard Aden Holloway, who is not with the team due to an arrest for marijuana possession earlier this week. Holloway ranks second on the team in scoring (16.8 points per game) and assists (3.8), so his absence will be felt on both ends of the floor. That’s a shame, because while Bama has been dealing with injuries all season, it was finally healthy for the stretch run. The Tide plays fast (No. 4 in tempo) but doesn’t force turnovers (No. 362 in defensive turnover percentage), and while it will take a near-perfect performance for Hofstra to pull off the upset, the Pride have the guards to do it in 6-foot-3 senior guard and CAA Player of the Year Cruz Davis (20.2 points per game) and 6-foot-1 freshman Preston Edmead (15.9). The Pride also has legit big-time rebounders in 7-foot senior center Silas Sunday and his backup Victory Onuetu, a 6-foot-10 junior. Even if Hostra doesn’t pull off the upset, it should at least push the Tide to the wire.
No. 8 Villanova vs. No. 9 Utah State
Seth’s Analysis
Utah State had a rough stretch in the regular season when it lost four out of five games, but the Aggies subsequently reeled off four consecutive wins, including three in the Mountain West Conference tournament. They knocked off San Diego State in the final despite shooting 6 of 21 from three, but the Aggies have gotten most of their wins this season despite their defense, which ranks No. 44 on KenPom in adjusted efficiency, not because of it. That could be a problem against a rugged Villanova squad that grinded its way to a third-place finish in the Big East. The Wildcats just lost sophomore forward Matt Hodge, a starter all season, to a season-ending ACL injury, but they still have one of the nation’s top offensive rebounders in 6-foot-10 senior forward Duke Brennan, and a solid perimeter corps anchored by freshman point guard Acaden Lewis. I’ll learn towards the better defensive team in this one.
No. 6 Tennessee (-11.5) vs. No. 11 Miami (Ohio), 4:25 p.m., TBS
Seth’s Analysis
Miami’s 89-79 win over SMU in the First Four Wednesday night was billed as justification for the RedHawks’ inclusion into the tournament, but they did not need to be validated. Casual fans saw what the rest of us have seen all season, which was a team that shared the ball and launched it, this time to the tune of 41 attempted three-pointers, 16 of which found the net. That’s 64 percent of their shot attempts from deep, which was well ahead of their 45.3 percent pace from the regular season. It’s critical that Miami shoots well because this team ranks 330th on KenPom in offensive rebound percentage. The jig will be up against a Tennessee squad that is holding opponents to 30.6 percent three-point shooting and ranks 15th in adjusted defensive efficiency and first in offensive rebound percentage. It’s concerning that the Vols lost four of their six games coming into the tournament, but I expect them to physically overpower the RedHawks. Not to mention that Miami (Ohio) doesn’t have a defensive counter to Tennessee’s star freshman forward Nate Ament, who will be eager to bounce back from his woeful 1-for-13 shooting performance in the SEC tournament loss to Vanderbilt.
No. 8 Clemson vs. No. 9 Iowa
Seth’s Analysis
There’s no mystery when it comes to game-planning Iowa: contain Bennett Stirtz. Every team that played the Hawkeyes tried to do that, but not many of them succeeded as the 6-foot-4 senior guard averaged 20.0 points and 4.5 assists on 37.6 percent three-point shooting. The problem is he didn’t get enough help from his teammates, which is why the Hawkeyes lost seven of their last ten games. Clemson is playing typical Brad Brownell basketball, which is predicated on defense (No. 21 nationally in adjusted efficiency), pace (No. 333 in tempo) and ball control (No. 28 in turnover percentage). This team returned just one rotation player from the squad that went 18-2 in the ACC last year, yet the Tigers finished in a tie for fourth in the conference with North Carolina and knocked off the Tar Heels in the ACC Tournament. The Tigers recently lost junior forward Carter Welling to a torn ACL, but this team has been balanced and deep all season, so it’s equipped to withstand the loss. Both teams are comfortable playing slow, low-scoring games, but I think the Tigers’ defense will be the difference.
No. 5 St. John’s vs. No. 12 Northern Iowa
Seth’s Analysis
The script has flipped on St. John’s several times this season. The most recent turnabout came in the Big East tournament, where the Red Storm dominated UConn by 20 points just three weeks after losing to the Huskies by 32 in Hartford. The Red Storm better be ready to play against a Northern Iowa squad that had to win four games in four days to capture the Missouri Valley Conference tournament title. The Panthers were the No. 6 seed in that tournament because they had a five-game losing streak while 6-foot-6 senior guard Tristan Smith was injured. Ben Jacobson has been the head coach at UNI for 20 years, and though mid-major programs typically struggle with player retention, the Panthers rank No. 3 on KenPom in roster continuity. They’re 24th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 363rd in tempo, but they’re also 356th in offensive rebound percentage, 361st in offensive free throw rate, and 279th in free throw shooting (69.7 percent). Their tallest starter is 6-foot-8. St. John’s loves to play physical, hard-nosed basketball, so this is not a great matchup for UNI.
No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 10 UCF
Seth’s Analysis
Between the Bruins’ listless play and Mick Cronin’s crotchety press conferences, it has been easy to poke fun at UCLA this season. But the Bruins might be ready to have the last laugh. They finally got healthy down the stretch with the return of senior guard Skyy Clark, who missed 10 games in January and February with a torn hamstring, and they won six out of seven games before losing to Purdue in the semifinals of the Big Ten tournament. UCLA’s top two offensive players, senior point guard Donovan Dent and senior forward Tyler Bilodeau, sustained minor injuries in the tournament, but the hope is that both of them will be ready to go. If that’s the case, UCLA should be able to handle a UCF squad that limped to a 4-6 finish, capped by an 81-59 drubbing by Arizona in the Big 12 tournament. UCF has a dynamic and highly underappreciated point guard in 6-foot-2 senior Themus Folks, but the school is making just its second NCAA tournament appearance in the last 20 years, and the Knights’ porous defense (No. 102 in adjusted efficiency) should be their undoing.
No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 15 Queens University
Seth’s Analysis
The Boilermakers lost four out of six games to close the regular season. Then they won four games in four days to capture the Big Ten tournament title. So which is the real Purdue? The answer is probably somewhere in between. This is still a very suspect defensive team (No. 36 on KenPom in adjusted efficiency), so the Boilermakers need to be totally locked in and connected at that end of the floor to beat really good teams. They were able to bring that to Chicago, but is it sustainable? We probably won’t get a clear answer in this game given that Queens finished third in the ASUN in the regular season and transitioned to Division I just four years ago. The Royals were non-competitive against nonconference foes Wake Forest, Arkansas and Auburn. Several of the current Boilermakers were on the squad that got knocked off by No. 16 FDU three years ago, so there’s no way they are going to take this opponent lightly.
No. 1 Florida vs No. 16 Prairie View A&M
Seth’s Analysis
As I wrote in my bracket breakdown, I thought Florida losing badly to Vanderbilt was the best thing that could have happened to the Gators. There is such a thing as riding too high into March Madness. Now that this team has been properly grounded, I think it will attack its quest for a repeat with the proper edge. The big question is whether the Gators can rediscover the three-point touch they had found the last four weeks before their ghastly 5 for 17 showing against the Commodores. The larger problem in that game was the defense, which allowed Vanderbilt to convert 10 of 21 from long range. Prairie View A&M has one of the worst offenses in the country (No. 311 on KenPom in adjusted efficiency) and only mustered 67 points in its First Four win over Lehigh Tuesday night. This is a prodigious point spread, but I’ll still take the favorite.
No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 13 California Baptist
Seth’s Analysis
One of the great things about March Madness is that the general public gets to lay eyes on some exciting mid-major stars. That will be the case here as Cal Baptist 5-foot-10 senior guard Dominique Daniels tests his mettle against the Jayhawks and their prized freshman, Darryn Peterson. Daniels is a classic high-usage guard who thrives in pick-and-roll action to the tune of 23.2 points per game, which ranks fifth nationally. Needless to say, the Jayhwaks will have total team awareness of Daniels, but he’s the type of David whose sling shot could take down a titan. Kansas looked mortal late in the season, losing five of their final nine games, including a decisive 69-47 loss to Houston in the Big 12 tournament. Kansas is heavily favored for a reason, but this does not look like a vintage Jayhawks team that is ready to make a run through the bracket. I think they’ll win, but it’s going to take some doing.
No. 2 UConn vs. No. 15 Furman
Seth’s Analysis
For a team with legitimate Final Four aspirations, UConn has had an odd season. The Huskies went 29-5 and posted great nonconference wins over BYU, Illinois, Kansas and Florida, but some of their Big East wins were closer than they should have been, and they dropped a couple of bad ones to Creighton and Marquette. They blitzed St. John’s by 32 points on Feb. 25, only to get drilled by 20 by the Red Storm in the Big East tournament final two weeks later. Furman has been a consistent contender in the SoCon under Bob Richey (who can forget their buzzer beating first-round win over Virginia three years ago?) and they have a dynamic freshman guard in Alex Wilkins, who started all 34 games and is the team’s leading scorer at 17.7 points per game to go along with 4.7 assists. The Paladins fought through some injuries this season but bring size in the paint in 6-foot-11 junior center Cooper Bowser and are ranked No. 5 on KenPom in height. That suggests they can body up with UConn center Tarris Reid. In the end, I like the Huskies to win, but not by this much.
No. 7 Miami vs. No. 10 Missouri
Seth’s Analysis
I’ve been a fan of the Hurricanes all season, and more often than not they have validated my belief. In his first season at the helm, Jai Lucas took a team that had 24 losses last season and brought them 24 wins in the regular season. He brought in two Big Ten transfers in 6-foot-9 senior forward Malik Reneau (Indiana) and 6-foot-3 senior guard Tre Donaldson (Michigan), who are both ranked in the top 10 of the ACC in scoring. Miami’s primary weakness is an inability to defend the three-point line (they ranked 295th nationally as opponents are making 35.4 percent), but Missouri is not a proficient three-point shooting team. The Tigers take 36.0 percent of their shots from behind the arc (249th per KenPom) and are even worse at defending the line (330th at 36.5 percent). The Tigers have also lost three straight while Miami won four of its last six including a win over Louisville in the ACC Tournament. I believe the Canes will ride that momentum into the second round.
Meet your guide
