SAN JOSE — And then there were eight.
The 2026 NCAA Tournament is fast drawing to a close – too fast, for those of us who truly revel in the pageantry of March Madness. We’ve got two Elite Eight games coming tonight, with another pair on tap for tomorrow. By the time Sunday night comes around, we will know who is in the Final Four.
I’ve had a blast making these picks against the spread all season and throughout the tournament. I hope they’ve helped you enhance your financial security, either by playing me or fading me. Here are my picks for today’s regional finals. I’ll have another twofer ready to go for you tomorrow.
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 9 Iowa
Seth’s Analysis
The scouting report on the Hawkeyes has been consistent for much of the season: They depend on Bennett Stirtz as much if not more than any team in the country depends on any one player. And that has worked, to a point. The 6-foot-4 senior point guard, who followed coach Ben McCollum from Division II Northwest Missouri State to Drake and now to Iowa, had an All-America-caliber season while averaging 19.7 points and 4.4 assists (to just 1.8 turnovers) while making 35.8 percent from three and 84.5 percent from the foul line. He has played 95.3 percent of possible minutes (the highest in the Big Ten and fifth-highest nationally) and has a usage rate of 26.8 percent.
Yet, the Hawkeyes wouldn’t be in the Elite Eight if Stirtz weren’t getting a lot of help from his friends. They knocked off top-seeded Florida even though Stirtz shot 0 for 9 from three. He was outstanding while going for 20 points and 4 assists against Nebraska on Thursday night, but the Hawkeyes also got 38 points off the bench, 35 of which came from 6-foot-10 junior forward Alvara Folgueiras and 6-foot-7 freshman guard Tate Sage. This is not only a complete team, but one that has a distinct identity centered on pace (No. 361 in tempo per KenPom), defense (No. 16 in defensive turnover percentage) and toughness (just ask Clemson, Florida and Nebraska).
On paper, Illinois should be the dominant team. Hence the more-than-a-touchdown point spread. I don’t see why anyone would think Illinois will be by that much. Yes, the Illini will have a size advantage (they’re the tallest team in the country) and with their plethora of talented offensive players they should be able to score at a high clip. I was extremely impressed (and frankly surprised) that the Illini were able to match Houston’s toughness and out-rebound the Cougars by nine. But Iowa has already knocked off the best frontcourt in the country in Florida and gotten by two other physical teams in Clemson and Nebraska. Size is not going to be an issue.
The lone meeting between these this season was a tight one, with Illinois prevailing 75-69 in Cedar Rapids on Jan. 11. If this game were being played in early or mid February, I might believe Illinois could dominate, but the Hawkeyes have found something special these last eight days. They might not win the game, but they’re going to put up a fight.
No. 1 Arizona (-6.5) vs. No. 2 Purdue, 8:49 p.m., TBS
Seth’s Analysis
When it comes to facing the Wildcats, the most important stat is one that doesn’t often get much attention in the pace-and-space era: two-point defense. Arizona has the ability to knock down threes, but the Wildcats butter their bread in the paint, not only through post entries and high-low passing between their bigs but also the ability of their speedy guards to get downhill and attack the rim in transition. If you can’t deal with that, you can’t compete with these guys. Arkansas, which ranks 284th nationally in this category at 54.3 percent, found that out Thursday. Now it’s Purdue’s turn, and given that the Boilermakers rank 249th at 53.3 percent, things do not bode well.
The difference is that Purdue has a truly big man at center in 6-foot-11 senior Oscar Cluff. But if he gets into foul trouble, that only leaves 7-foot-4 sophomore Daniel Jacobson off the bench. He has played a total of four minutes the last two games, so it appears Matt Painter doesn’t have much confidence in him. The other difference is that the Boilermakers are an elite offensive team (No. 1 on KenPom in adjusted efficiency), so even though they may not stop the Wildcats on defense, they have a shot at outscoring them. Then again, Arizona is also No. 3 on KenPom in adjusted efficiency. Texas ranks 84th in that category, and the Longhorns were still able to take Purdue to the final possession.
I would never totally count out this group, but Arizona has been so overwhelming across the board that it’s frankly hard to speak into existence the possibility of an upset. Arizona is simply the far superior team, and I expect the Wildcats to prove it.
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