Five Bold Predictions for the 2026-27 Men’s Hoops Season

It’s true that no mid-major has reached the Elite Eight since San Diego State in 2023. All of the top-four seeds have escaped the first round in each of the last two tournaments, marking the first time that’s happened since 1985. Only five mid-major programs won games in last year’s Big Dance — Miami OH, Utah State, High Point, VCU and Saint Louis — and they were all bounced in their ensuing outings (excluding traditional powerhouse Gonzaga).

That said, I think we could get a magical Cinderella run in 2026-27. There are some loaded teams in the Atlantic 10, Mountain West and new Pac-12. Eight mid-majors (again, excluding Gonzaga) are ranked in the top 70 of BartTorvik’s preseason projections: Grand Canyon (No. 45), VCU (No. 53), San Diego State (No. 59), Utah State (No. 61) Saint Mary’s (No. 65), New Mexico (No. 66), High Point (No. 68) and Saint Louis (No. 69). Of those schools, I like Grand Canyon, Utah State, New Mexico and Saint Louis the best. 

Grand Canyon took advantage of an eight-figure NIL budget to assemble a high-major-caliber roster, assuming all its fifth-year guys (Tre Holloman, Dan Skillings Jr. and Jaden Henley) are ruled eligible. Utah State will be led by arguably the best mid-major player in the country in 6-foot-4 senior wing Mason Falslev, while New Mexico has its own elite lead guard in 6-foot-4 sophomore Jake Hall. Saint Louis retained nine players, including five key rotational pieces, from a team that won a program-record 29 games in 2025-26.

2. The SEC ties or breaks its record of 14 NCAA Tournament bids

In 2025, the SEC sent a whopping 14 teams to the NCAA Tournament, shattering the previous record of 11 set by the Big East in 2011. Only two schools from the league (LSU and South Carolina) didn’t go dancing that year. When Florida won the national title, many believed it solidified the 2024-25 SEC as the greatest conference in college basketball history.

The 2026-27 SEC could be even better. 

The league had a phenomenal offseason, retaining many of its stars, thriving in the portal and adding more prominent high school recruits. Six of the SEC’s top 15 scorers from last season are back, including National Player of the Year contenders Tyler Tanner (Vanderbilt) and Thomas Haugh (Florida). Three of the nation’s top five transfers, per Hoops HQ’s rankings, jumped from other conferences to the SEC. Overall, the conference is deeper and more talented than ever before, with 13 schools ranked in the top 50 of BartTorvik’s preseason projections. Programs like LSU, Mississippi State and Ole Miss, which missed the Big Dance in 2026, should be very competitive and have plenty of chances to boost their resumes.  

With the NCAA Tournament field expanding from 68 to 76 teams, I could definitely see the SEC accounting for at least 14 bids.

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3. At least three freshmen earn All-American honors

This may not sound like a bold prediction, especially after the 2025-26 freshman class accounted for six of 15 AP All-Americans. But consider this: Blue Ribbon Yearbook released its four preseason All-America teams, and only one freshman was in the mix — Kansas forward Tyran Stokes. CBS Sports asked nearly 100 Division I coaches “Who will be the best college basketball player in 2026-27?” and just two freshmen (Stokes and Arizona wing Caleb Holt) received votes. In Evan Miya’s preseason player rankings, there is not a single freshman in the top 30, with Arkansas guard Jordan Smith Jr. and Stokes coming in at No. 33 and No. 35, respectively. 

Point being: The incoming crop of freshmen is not regarded that highly, at least compared to the past few classes. But I believe it will exceed expectations. 

Stokes, Holt and Smith Jr. are the likeliest candidates to earn All-American honors. They are all stat-sheet stuffers — Smith Jr. even had a triple-double during a foreign exhibition game in July — whose teams should be among the best in the country. There are a few other names I could see being in the mix, including Missouri guard Jason Crowe Jr. and BYU wing Bruce Branch III. If under-the-radar teams like West Virginia and Baylor end up making noise, it’ll be because their five-star freshmen (WVU’s Miles Sadler and BU’s Dylan Mingo) are even better than advertised. Throw in some promising international prospects (Duke center Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje and UCLA wing Nikola Kusturica) and the 2026-27 freshman class has a lot more upside than the preseason projections suggest.

4. Neoklis Avdalas re-emerges as a lottery pick

Almost a year ago, Neoklis Avdalas was being talked about as a potential top 10 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. The 6-foot-9 freshman point guard from Greece erupted for 33 points in just his second college game, leading Virginia Tech to a 107-101 victory over Providence. His rare blend of size, playmaking and shooting had NBA scouts buzzing. But from there, Avdalas’ stock plummeted. He especially struggled during ACC play, shooting just 34.7 percent from the field and 27.7 percent from three. By the end of the season, the 20-year-old was projected as a second-rounder and decided to return to college rather than make the jump to the pros. 

Avdalas transferred from Virginia Tech to North Carolina, where he will suit up for new head coach Michael Malone. Given Avdalas’ pro-style game and Malone’s extensive NBA experience, the pairing makes perfect sense. As the team’s floor general, Avdalas will be surrounded by high-level scorers and lob threats, enabling him to showcase his unique passing ability. Overall, with UNC’s system and strong supporting cast, he is well positioned for a sophomore leap — one that should boost his draft stock significantly.

Still, early 2027 mock drafts have the jumbo guard projected in the second round. It would not surprise me at all if he climbs boards throughout the season and winds up in the lottery conversation once again.

5. Tounde Yessoufou becomes the first player to average 20-plus points under Rick Pitino since 2002

It’s hard to believe given all the greats he has coached through the years, but Rick Pitino hasn’t had a player average more than 20 points for an entire season in a quarter century. You have to go back to his first year at Louisville (2001-02), when the Cardinals were led by junior Reece Gaines and his 21 points per game (that team went 19-15 and missed the NCAA Tournament). Even NBA players like Russ Smith, Terry Rozier, Donovan Mitchell and Walter Clayton Jr. never eclipsed the 20-point mark under Pitino. The legendary coach tends to have more balanced squads that rely on multiple weapons offensively. 

Pitino’s reconstructed roster at St. John’s has plenty of intriguing pieces, including international standouts Quinn Ellis and Babacar Sane (both of whom are still facing eligibility questions). But with Syracuse transfer Donnie Freeman out for the season with a torn Achilles, there is no question who is the go-to guy on the 2026-27 Red Storm: Baylor transfer Tounde Yessoufou.

A 6-foot-5 sophomore guard originally from the West African country of Benin, Yessoufou has always been an explosive scorer. During his four-year career at St. Joseph High School in California, he broke the state scoring record. He started all 34 games for the Bears last season and averaged 17.8 points (10th among freshmen). His efficiency from behind the arc was poor (27.7 percent), but he was often unstoppable attacking the basket and operating in the mid-post. Pitino has helped many talented guards improve their outside shots throughout his career. I expect him to do the same with Yessoufou, while also empowering the athletic wing to get to the free throw line more. 

Even if everyone on the roster ultimately gets cleared, St. John’s is going to need heavy production from Yessoufou to remain a top-35 offense (per KenPom) and defend its Big East throne.