The Sweet Sixteen is ready to tip off. We don’t have a lot of Cinderellas, but we do have a few surprises and some unconventional participants. (Helloooo, Nebraska and Iowa.) Most of all, we have some true powerhouses and unquestionably the best teams in the country.
Who will win? By how much? Fortunately, your favorite prognosticator has returned to regale you with my precious prescience. Although judging by how my picks have gone this season, you may want to fade me more than play me. Be sure to check out the suggested plays from our Wanna Bet? duo of Jason La Canfora and Ben Hall as well.
It’s going to be a fun couple of nights in college hoops. Here are my picks against the spread for all the Sweet Sixteen games:
No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 11 Texas
Seth’s Analysis
Both of these teams were gifted offensively during the season but suspect on the defensive end. They’ve ramped things up of late and will need to do so again in order to advance. On the one hand, the Boilermakers are vulnerable against quick, agile wing slashers like the ones Miami had, so Texas is a more comfortable matchup for them. On the other hand, the Longhorns have the size, strength and maturity to counter Purdue’s primary strengths as well. Texas can put quality defenders with size like Tramon Mark and Chendall Weaver on Braden Smith. At 6-foot-8 225 pounds, Dailyn Swain is well-suited to check Trey Kaufmann-Renn. And 7-foot sophomore center Matas Vokietaitis may be the most improved player in the tournament. He will be an effective counter to Purdue’s 6-foot-11 255-pound senior center Oscar Cluff. In the end I think Purdue figures out a way to win because that’s what the Boilermakers do, but Texas has the potential to take this thing down to the wire.
No. 4 Nebraska vs. No. 9 Iowa
Seth’s Analysis
The fact that Iowa beat Florida was surprising enough. But it was the way the Hawkeyes won the game that shocked me. The conventional wisdom held that Iowa’s best chance to win would be for the Hawkeyes (particularly Bennett Stirtz) to shoot lights out from the perimeter. Instead, they punked the Gators on the glass and in the paint, and in the end got the big shot from Alvaro Folgueiras to advance. I don’t know if the Gators were surprised the Hawkeyes were so tough and physical, but I’m positive the Cornhuskers won’t be. These two split two hard-fought games during the regular season. I’ll give the edge to Nebraska here because they are the superior defensive team and they have a few too many offensive weapons. But get ready for another riveting rock fight.
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 4 Arkansas
Seth’s Analysis
It’s not often that Arizona doesn’t have the best player in the game, but the Razorbacks’ incandescent freshman point guard, Darius Acuff Jr., is not only the best player in this game, but arguably the best remaining in the tournament. He is coming in hot off his 36-point masterpiece in the Razorbacks’ second-round win over High Point. Acuff will need to have another outing of that magnitude, because the Razorbacks are going to be at a serious advantage down low while going up against an absolute monster in Arizona’s 7-foot-2 junior center Montiujus Krivas and sixth man Tobe Awaka, who is leads the nation in offensive rebound percentage. Arkansas rotates three 6-foot-10 forwards, but the Razorbacks rank 203rd on KenPom in defensive rebound percentage and 275th in two-point defense (54.0). And by the way, Arizona has some perimeter dazzlers of their own in Jaden Bradley, Brayden Burries and Athony Dell’Orso.
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 3 Illinois
Seth’s Analysis
I keep hearing that Houston’s defense isn’t what it used to be. That’s a little bit true. Last season the Cougars were ranked No. 1 on KenPom in adjusted defensive efficiency. This season they plummeted all the way to … fourth. Meanwhile, they’re a wee bit better on offense, ranking No. 10 in adjusted efficiency compared to 12th last season. Newsflash: Houston is still really, really good, and the Cougars are every bit as tough and physical as Kelvin Sampson’s teams have always been. The Cougars are a little off where they were last season on the defensive glass but they still rank fifth nationally in offensive rebound percentage. The Illini have one of the most potent offenses in the country, but freshman guard Keaton Wagler has come back down to earth the last few weeks. Perhaps that’s a reflection of his lower usage rate following the return of Kylan Boswell from injury. Over his last five games, Wagler is averaging a pedestrian 11.6 points and 5.0 assists on 32.1 percent three-point shooting. These are two evenly matched teams, so this game will essentially come down to who is making shots. But Houston has a greater ability to survive a poor shooting night. And the Cougars are playing in their home city.
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 5 St. John’s
Seth’s Analysis
I’m still deciding whether the Red Storm’s win over Kansas was the worst great game I’ve ever seen or the best bad one. Neither team could score in the first half, and after St. John’s built a 14-point late in the second half the players suddenly forgot how to box out. St. John’s is one of the few remaining teams in the tournament that can match Duke when it comes to physicality and toughess, but the Red Storm cannot slog through too many offensive droughts (they were 11 of 35 from three against the Jayhawks) and expect to beat an explosive team like the Blue Devils. Perhaps this is a game where St. John’s gets an unexpected career game from someone like Ian Jackson, Joson Sanon or Lefteris Liotopoulos off the bench. Duke coach Jon Scheyer has hinted that junior point guard Caleb Foster (foot) could try to suit up for this game. That would give Duke a nice boost, but the more important developoment is that sophomore forward Patrick Ngongba will have another few days to recover and improve his conditioning. Duke will need Ngongba to be effective and play more than the 13 minutes he logged against TCU. The Red Storm are playing solid basketball, but Duke simply has too much firepower.
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 4 Alabama
Seth’s Analysis
That was a seriously impressive display Alabama put on in the second round against Texas Tech. It’s tempting to dismiss the win by saying the Red Raiders were without their All-American forward J.T. Toppin, but the Crimson Tide was also without Aden Holloway, who ranks second on the team in points and assists and is their best three-point shooter. Michigan has also been a man down since 6-foot-2 sophomore L.J. Cason, tore an ACL in late February. To the extent the Wolverines have ever looked vulnerable, it has been against teams that spread them out and make a bunch of three-pointers. We know the Tide is going to hoist their 35.6 threes per game (the nation’s highest average). The only question is how many go in. Without Holloway, I don’t think it will be enough, and the Wolverines’ size at the rim plus Yaxel Lendeborg’s overall brilliance will prove to be too much.
No. 2 UConn vs. No. 3 Michigan State
Seth’s Analysis
We know Tom Izzo’s Spartans are going to bring the wood when it comes to defense and rebounding, and junior point guard Jeremy Fears, whose 16 assists in the second-round win over Louisville was a school record, leads a devastating transition game which also features the high-flying Coen Carr. The Spartans shot a combined 21 for 46 from three in their wins over North Dakota State and Louisville. Is that an encouraging sign of what’s ahead or or are they are going to revert to the mean? If it’s the former, the Huskies could be in trouble. Their point guard, 6-foot-4 junior Silas Demary, has been nursing a high ankle sprain. He missed the first-round win over Furman and had just two points to go along with 4 assists and 3 rebounds in the second-round win over UCLA. UConn was able to overcome an 8 for 24 outing three against the Bruins, but an off night like that against the Spartans will send them packing.
No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 6 Tennessee
Seth’s Analysis
Iowa State played all but three minutes last week in St. Louis without its All-American forward Joshua Jefferson, who rolled his ankle early in the first-round win over Tennessee State. The Cyclones still breezed through that game and their second-round date against Kentucky, but unfortunately it looks like Jefferson is either not going to play in this game, or he will play hurt. Tennessee is a strong, physical, veteran group led by a savvy senior point guard in Ja’Kobi Gillespie, so the Vols will put up a lot more resistance than the Wildcats did. On the other hand, I’m concerned that the physicality and intensity of this game will be a little too much for Vols freshman Nate Ament to handle. I think the Cyclones will figure out a way to get to the Elite Eight, but there’s only so far a team can go without its most important player.
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