The second round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament is ready to get underway and, frankly, it has a tough act to follow. The first round had tons of dramatic upsets and sensational moments, none more indelible than Otega Oweh’s banked-in halfcourt heave to allow Kentucky to prevail over Santa Clara in overtime on Friday.
By the end of today’s games, we’ll have half the Sweet Sixteen decided. So let’s get the action started. Here are all of my picks against the spread for today’s games. Good luck!
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 9 Saint Louis
Seth’s Analysis
Saint Louis limped into the NCAA Tournament, having lost four of their last eight games, including by a point to Dayton in the Atlantic-10 tournament. So I was surprised at how convincingly the Billikens trounced Georgia in Thursday’s first round game. They held a really good offensive team to 34.7 percent shooting and outscored the Bulldogs in the paint 66-28, mostly via their usual array of dribble handoffs, misdirections and back cuts. Needless to say, Saint Louis will meet much stiffer defensive resistance in this one, especially down low. The Wolverines rank behind only Duke in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom, and they have a formidable corps of forwards who can protect the rim and also switch out on all those ball screens Saint Louis likes to utilize. The Billikens can be scary offensively if their shots are falling, but over the course of a 40-minute game, the bigger, stronger team should prevail.
No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 6 Louisville
Seth’s Analysis
While several of the top teams were either getting knocked off or surviving close scares on Thursday, the Spartans squashed any suspense from the opening tip of their 92-67 dissection of North Dakota State. Nobody should ever wonder about this team’s toughness, resilience, or ability to defend and rebound. The only question is whether Michigan State can score enough to make a run at a title. The Spartans converted 10 of their 20 three-point attempts in that win and registered 26 assists on 33 field goals. If that’s the version of Michigan State that shows up on Saturday, then I like their chances to win comfortably. Louisville ranked 11th in the ACC in three-point defense (35.4 percent) and the Cardinals are 45th on KenPom in defensive rebound percentage. They barely held of South Florida on Thursday even though the Bulls shot 5 for 33 from three. Louisville will once again be without freshman point guard Mikel Brown Jr., but the Cards have played so many games without him I’m not sure it matters anymore. Michigan State has the chops to clamp down on Louisville’s perimeter firepower, but the Cards can’t match Michigan State’s physicality in the paint.
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 9 TCU
Seth’s Analysis
Well that was quite a scare the Blue Devils put into their fans on Thursday, but what their great escape of Siena really demonstrated is how vulnerable this team is without 6-foot-11 sophomore forward Patrick Ngongba, who has missed the last five games with a foot injury. Ngongba is an essential piece for a team that ranks No. 2 in height and No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom. Duke is also playing without junior point guard Caleb Foster (broken foot), but freshman Cayden Boozer showed he can be a more-than-adequate replacement by going for 19 points, 5 assists and 0 turnovers in the win. If Ngongba is back in the lineup as expected, Duke should be able to impose its size and physicality over at TCU squad that plays tough defense but ranks No. 322 on KenPom in height. The Horned Frogs depend heavily on their second-leading scorer, 6-foot-8 junior forward Xavier Edmonds, who converted the game-winning basket on Thursday against Ohio State. But he’ll be assigned to covering Cameron Boozer, which means he could end getting into foul trouble.
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 10 Texas A&M
Seth’s Analysis
Texas A&M is most commonly identified with the run-and-gun, three-happy style known as “Bucky Ball,” but the Aggies brought the wood to Saint Mary’s during their 63-50 first-round win. They dominated the paint 28-12 and forced the usually surehanded Gaels to commit 18 turnovers. Senior forward Rashaun Agee overpowered Saint Mary’s to the tune of 22 points, 9 rebounds and 3 assists, but he’ll be going up against a much more formidable defense here. The Cougars overwhelmed 15th-seeded Idaho on Thursday, holding the Vandals to 28.6 percent shooting while shooting 50.0 percent (53.3 percent from three) and owning a plus-15 margin on the boards. Houston ranks 38th in the country in offensive rebound percentage while the Aggies ranked 12th in the SEC in defensive rebound percentage. Texas A&M’s best chance to win this game is to hope the Cougars have a terrible shooting performance. And hope is not a great strategy at this stage of the season.
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 11 VCU
Seth’s Analysis
These teams play a similar style and have similar strengths, but Illinois is a bigger, better version of the Rams. The Illini rank No. 1 on KenPom in both height and adjusted offensive efficiency, which is why they sailed by Penn in the first round. The way to counter that is to slow down the game and force Illinois to grind out a win, but that is not what the Rams do. They showed incredible grit and resilience in coming back from 19 points down to beat North Carolina in the first round, but the Tar Heels originally mounted that advantage by dominating in the paint. Also, VCU has been very dependent this season on winning the free throw battle (the Rams rank 22nd in offensive free throw rate), but Illinois’ defense is so foul-averse that the Illini actually rank dead last in steals percentage — be design. VCU is riding some good momentum, but Illinois has too many ways to win.
No. 5 Vanderbilt vs. No. 4 Nebraska
Seth’s Analysis
This is my favorite game of the day. The Commodores are playing their basketball of the season, which is saying a lot given their season. They throttled Florida by 17 in the semifinals of the SEC Tournament, and though they fell short in the final against Arkansas, the Commodores were at peak efficiency in their 78-68 win over McNeese in the first round. This team is best known for its guards (Tyler Tanner had 26 points, 7 rebounds and 5 assists), but its frontcourt is also playing big. The Commodores outscored the Cowboys in the paint 34-22 and outscored them by eight at the foul line. Now Vandy is going to go up against one of the best defensive teams it has faced all season. Nebraska ranks No. 7 on KenPom in adjusted defensive efficiency, and the Huskers put the clamps on a pretty good Troy squad in the first round. These teams are evenly matched, but Nebraska stumbled its way into the postseason while the Commodores looked like they were getting healthy, especially after 6-foot-2 senior guard Duke Miles rejoined the team in late February after missing three weeks following knee surgery. Miles appeared to injure his left thumb in the win over McNeese but he is saying he should be ready to go for this one. I’ll ride the hot hand.
No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 12 High Point
Seth’s Analysis
High Point may have pulled off the most dramatic upset of the first round, but it was no fluke. The Panthers have won 31 games and they do a great job playing exciting, up-tempo basketball while still being careful with the ball. They committed just six turnovers against the Badgers and rank No. 4 on KenPom in turnover percentage. The problem is they also depend on forcing turnovers (second nationally in steals percentage), and they are 329th nationally in height. That makes them a comfortable matchup for Arkansas, which can not only match but exceed High Point when it comes to guard play, athleticism and speed. Five Razorbacks scored in double figures in their first-round drubbing of Hawaii, and they embarrassed a good opponent despite shooting 4 for 21 from three. The way to beat a team like the Hogs is to slow them down and grind them out, but that’s not what High Point does. That’s a big advantage to the favorites who are playing their best ball of the season.
No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 11 Texas
Seth’s Analysis
The Longhorns nearly frittered away their First Four game against N.C. State’s fullcourt press but managed to dig out 68-66 win. They carried that confidence into the first round, where they survived an A.J. Dybantsa barrage of 35 points to topple BYU, 79-71. There’s something to be said for escaping a couple of close calls, but what I really like about the Longhorns is their ability to defend Gonzaga’s All-American big man, Graham Ike. Sean Miller and his staff have done a great job developing 7-foot sophomore center Matas Vokietaitis, who not only has the chance to defend Ike without needing help but can also power Ike to the basket and possibly get him into foul trouble. If that happens, then this will be the game where the Zags really miss 6-foot-10 junior forward Braden Huff, who is still out of action due to a knee injury. Gonzaga might be as talented as Texas in the backcourt, but the Longhorns are much more experienced and physical. If Gonzaga brings its A game, it should win the game handily, but the Longhorns have matured and evolved during their SEC gauntlet. I think they’ll win the game, but even if they don’t, it will come down to the wire.
Meet your guide
