For college basketball enthusiasts like us, Thursday at noon is Christmas and New Years Eve wrapped into one bundle, with a healthy dash of Mardi Gras and “The Hangover” tucked inside. The first full day of the NCAA Tournament is finally here. Isn’t this a wonderful time to be alive!
Many of you may have more than a casual interest not just in the outcome of these games, but by the scoring margins as well. The gambling space has indeed come a long way the last few years, and we at Hoops HQ are ready to help you enjoy it completely and, we hope, profitably.
Once again, I will be picking every game in this NCAA Tournament against the spread. Our Wanna Bet? duo of Jason La Canfora and Ben Hall will have lots of other plays for you as well. Play me, fade me, but whatever you do, enjoy the Madness!
Here are my picks for Thursday’s 16 games. Let’s do this.
No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 9 TCU
Seth’s Analysis
Just three weeks ago, the Buckeyes were 9-8 in the Big Ten and had one lousy Quad 1 win. They subsequently reeled off four straight wins, including over Purdue at home, knocked off Iowa in the Big Ten tournament and played Michigan to the wire before falling, 71-67. The Buckeyes are a good pick here if you believe in momentum, but what I mostly believe in is the stark improvement of 7-foot senior center Christoph Tilly and especially athletic 6-foot-8 freshman forward Amare Bynum. They’ve given the Buckeyes an inside balance opposite their stellar backcourt of Bruce Thornton and John Mobley. TCU is also coming in hot, having won nine out of ten before losing a close one to Kansas in the Big 12 tournament. The Horned Frogs are ranked No. 22 on KenPom in adjusted defensive efficiency, but they are dead last in the Big 12 in effective field goal percentage and 14th in free throw percentage. They may hang close by making this thing a rock fight, but the Buckeyes have a little too much firepower.
No. 4 Nebraska vs. No. 13 Troy
Seth’s Analysis
The pressure is going to be so intense, I almost don’t want to watch. Nebraska just completed one of the best regular seasons in school history. Now the Huskers have a chance to break the ignominious distinction of being the only power conference program that has never won an NCAA Tournament game. Nebraska followed its storybook 20-0 start by limping to a 6-6 finish. The culprit was the offense, which ranked No. 113 nationally in adjusted efficiency during that stretch, per BartTorvik. The good news is that I think the Huskers got a favorable matchup here. This is Troy’s second consecutive NCAA Tournament, but the only returning starter from last year is 6-foot-8 junior forward Thomas Dowd, who averages 14.8 points and 10.1 rebounds per game. The Trojans are ranked No. 166 on KenPom in adjusted defensive efficiency and lost by 21 points to Kentucky in the first round last season. Still, that pressure is going to be real. I say Nebraska’s first tourney win will happen, but the Huskers will make their famously rabid fans sweat out their ride into history.
No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 South Florida
Seth’s Analysis
The big question coming into the week was whether Mikel Brown Jr. would return for Louisville. The freshman point guard (and soon-to-be lottery pick) has missed the last four games with a re-aggravated back injury which caused him to miss eight games in December and January. The school announced on Wednesday that Brown is out for the first week of the tournament. That’s a problem while going up against a South Florida squad that won the American Conference by two games and cruised to the tourney title. The Bulls are ranked No. 17 on KenPom in tempo, so they are perfectly comfortable racing up and down the court with the Cardinals. They also rank No. 7 in offensive rebound percentage. First-year coach Bryan Hodgson led the Bulls to a school-record 25 wins and a current 11-game win streak, third-longest active streak in the nation. They boast a bona fide stud in 6-foot-10 senior forward Izaiyah Nelson, who was named the American’s Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the year and Newcomer of the Year. He is flanked by two of the American’s top three-point shooters in 6-foot-2 junior guard Wes Ennis and 6-foot-5 senior guard Joseph Pinion. The Bulls have had trouble with bigger teams this season, but the Cards don’t pose that problem. I picked Louisville to win this game in my bracket, but I think it’s basically a toss-up, and this point spread is bigger than I expected.
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 High Point
Seth’s Analysis
The Badgers had the best road wins of any team in the country: at Michigan, Illinois and Purdue. Then they beat the Illini on a neutral court at the Big Ten tournament. Wisconsin also nearly knocked off the Wolverines a second time. The Badgers have played their last four games without their leading rebounder, 7-foot junior forward Nolan Winter, who is nursing a lower leg injury. Greg Gard said Winter could have played in Chicago if the Badgers needed him, but they wanted to rest him for March Madness. If he’s ready to go, that provides a formidable complement to Wisconsin’s high-scoring Killer Bees in the backcourt, Nick Boyd and John Blackwell. The Badgers are going to be tested by a High Point squad that won a program record 30 games, is playing in its second straight NCAA Tournament and won 22 of its last 23, capped off by a 91-76 thrashing of Winthrop in the Big South tourney final. The Panthers are solid offensively but suspect on defense, ranking No. 226 on KenPom in adjusted deficiency, 226th in defensive rebound percentage and 264th in defensive free throw rate. That’s a big-time problem against a Wisconsin squad that can score with the best of them.
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 16 Siena
Seth’s Analysis
Give Duke credit for winning the ACC Tournament despite being without junior point guard Caleb Foster and sophomore forward Patrick Ngongba. Foster is likely done for the tourney with a broken foot, but Ngonga is more of the questionable/day-to-day variety due to a lower leg injury. Jon Scheyer knows his Blue Devils can get by Siena without Ngongba, and he said on Wednesday that he didn’t think Ngonga was going to play in the first round. The Saints are a great story. Coach Gerry McNamara took over a program two years ago that was coming off a four-win season, and he just led Siena to a third-place finish in the MAAC and a tourney title via a 10-point win over top-seeded Merrimack. Siena plays a very deliberate tempo (No. 319 on KenPom), but they are one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the country at 30.4 percent. They’re also 278th in height on KenPom, which is, shall we say, a big problem against the second-tallest team in the country. Siena’s best player is 6-foot-5 sophomore guard Gavin Doty, who scored a game-high 23 points in the MAAC final, but they also lost a key starter, 6–foot-6 senior guard Antonio Chandler, to an eligibility ruling in late February. The Saints are badly overmatched and Duke is not the type of team to let an underdog through the back door.
No. 5 Vanderbilt vs. No. 12 McNeese
Seth’s Analysis
The Commodores showed just how high their ceiling is while dominating a seemingly unbeatable Florida team 91-74 in the semifinals of the SEC Tournament. The perimeter trio of Tyler Tanner, Duke Miles and Tyler Nickel was awesome as always, but Vandy’s frontcourt trio of 6-foot-7 senior forward Devin McGlockton, 6-foot-7 senior forward AK Okereke and 6-foot-10 senior forward Jalen Washington proved their mettle by combining for 40 points and 11 rebounds against the nation’s premier front line. Vandy fell short against Arkansas in the final, but now that Miles is healthy and in the flow again, Vanderbilt is the type of team that can beat anyone. McNeese is back in the NCAA Tournament for the third straight season, this time under first-year coach Bill Armstrong after Will Wade left for N.C. State. The Cowboys return two starters — most notably 6-foot-3 senior guard Javohn Garcia, who scored a career-high 31 points in the Southland tourney final win over Stephen F. Austin — from the squad that knocked off Clemson in the first round last year. They lead the country in steals percentage per KenPom, but it’s hard to imagine Tanner and company giving up the ball enough to lose this game.
No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 14 North Dakota State
Seth’s Analysis
The Spartans are coming into the NCAA Tournament on a two-game losing streak, and by the time this tips off they will have had six long days to marinate on their 88-84 loss to UCLA in the Big Ten tournament. Michigan State has one of the top point guards in the country in Jeremy Fears and is elite in all the usual toughness categories (No. 13 in adjusted defensive efficiency, top four in both offensive and defensive rebound percentage), but the concern is whether one of its patented offensive droughts will send this team packing. The Bison are not the type of team to exploit that deficiency. They rank No. 124 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 289 in offensive free throw rate, although it’s worth noting that they are an outstanding defensive rebounding team (No. 17 on KenPom). The Bison are playing in their second straight NCAA Tournament but only returned four players from last season because it’s so hard to keep retain good players at a good mid-major program. Six players are currently averaging nine or more points and seven different players have led this team in scoring, but Michigan State is looking to get right for another run through the bracket. I think the Spartans will be primed and ready.
No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 13 Hawaii
Seth’s Analysis
Ernan Ganot is one of the hidden gems in the coaching profession. He is now in his 11th season coaching the Rainbow Warriors, and this is the best squad since his first one in 2016, which ended in the second round of the NCAA Tournament following an upset win over Cal. Like so man of Ganot’s teams, Hawaii hangs its hat on defense (No. 43 in adjusted efficiency and No. 29 in three-point D), rebounding (No. 10 in defensive percentage) and experience (average age is 23 years, 3 months). The Rainbow Warriors have a versatile center in 7-foot senior Isaac “Big Fish” Johnson, but they don’t do well against teams with athletic guards. Unfortunately for them, guards don’t come any more athletic then Arkansas freshman Darius Acuff Jr., a consensus All-American at point guard who led the SEC in scoring and assists. Acuff averaged 30.3 points, 7.7 assists (to 3.7 turnovers) and 4.3 rebounds in the Razorbacks’ three SEC Tournament wins. Clearly Arkansas is the better team and should win, but the Razorbacks are coming off an emotional high with a quick turnaround and a long trip to Portland. I think Hawaii can hang.
No. 6 North Carolina vs. No. 11 VCU
Seth’s Analysis
This is a small point spread for a No. 6 seed and the reason is obvious. The Tar Heels have lost three of the eight games they played since freshman forward Caleb Wilson was lost to a season-ending hand injury. That includes an 80-79 loss in the ACC Tournament to Clemson. In the wake of Wilson’s injury, the Heels have had to rely more heavily on freshman point guard Derek Dixon and 6-foot-6 junior guard Luka Bogavac, but while both have had their moments, they have proven to be unreliable. Not to mention that UNC ranks 316th in the county in free throw shooting at 68.4 percent. That’s why I like VCU not just to cover the spread but win the game. First-year coach Phil Martelli Jr. brought in nine new players (seven transfers, two freshmen) to replenish a roster that was depleted after Ryan Odom left for Virginia. The Rams are comfortable playing at a faster pace if they need to and I love that they are 15th in the country in offensive free throw rate. Their leading scorer, 6-foot-2 sophomore guard Terrence Hill Jr., comes off the bench, and 6-foot-1 freshman guard Nyk Lewis was the Atlantic-10 Rookie of the Year. North Carolina junior center Henry Veesaar could do some damage against a VCU squad that has trouble defending the post, but I don’t think it will be enough to avoid the upset.
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 16 Howard
Seth’s Analysis
The Bison pulled off an inspirational win over UMBC in their First Four game Tuesday night, and I want to say they have a chance to keep this game close, or at least under the spread. The reason I don’t think they will is because they rank 337th on KenPom in turnover percentage and dead last in non-steal turnover percentage. And no team in America turns mistakes into baskets (and dunks!) better than Michigan. Not to mention that the Wolverines should be locked in following their disappointing loss to Purdue in the Big Ten tourney final. At some point Michigan will feel the loss of backup point guard L.J. Cason, but this game won’t be it.
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 11 Texas
Seth’s Analysis
We’ve seen it in so many places, from the College Football Playoff to the basketball conference tournaments where teams get double and triple byes: Reps > Rest. So while BYU is going to go seven games between this game and its loss to Houston in the Big 12 tournament, the Longhorns were fighting N.C. State to the wire Tuesday night in Dayton, where they prevailed 68-66 on Tramon Mark’s late clutch jumper. Coach Sean Miller remarked after the game that he thought both teams looked nervous in their first NCAA Tournament game, but his Longhorns have gotten that out of the system. Obviously, A.J. Dybantsa is capable of going for 40 any time he plays, but if Texas can keep him in the really-awesome mode as opposed to the ridiculous-superhuman mode, then the Longhorns’ maturity and physicality should make the difference. The Cougars were not a great defensive team even before they lost 6-foot-5 senior guard Richie Saunders to a season-ending ACL tear, and they went 4-5 without him largely because they have problems stopping people. I also expect Texas forward Dailyn Swain to bounce back from his listless 13-point, 8-rebound, 5-turnover performance against the Wolfpack Tuesday night.
No. 7 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 10 Texas A&M
Seth’s Analysis
The Aggies were one of the surprise stories of the season when they sat alone in first place in the SEC on Jan. 31 with a 7-1 record. They came back to Earth and bowed out early in the SEC Tournament to Oklahoma, but it’s still impressive that Bucky McMillan was able to get this team to the NCAA Tournament in his first season. Texas A&M loves to play fast and fire up threes, but the shots need to go in because the Aggies don’t have much size and rank 116th nationally in offensive rebound percentage and 284th in defensive rebound percentage. They also depend on turning opponents over, but Randy Bennett’s teams at Saint Mary’s are always deliberate and disciplined, and this one is no different. The Gaels are also huge, with a pair of 7-footers in Andrew McKeever and Harry Wessels who helped Saint Mary’s rank in the top 15 in both offensive and defensive rebound percentage. The Gaels have a dynamic scoring guard in 6-foot-3 sophomore guard Mikey Lewis. Throw in a nation’s-best 81.1 percnet clip from the foul line, and you’ve got a team headed for the second round.
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 14 Penn
Seth’s Analysis
Lo and behold, Fran McCaffrey is back in the NCAA Tournament, and with his fourth team no less. The fact that he took his alma mater here in his first season has special meaning. It was especially impressive that the Quakers managed to win the Ivy League Tournament without their leading scorer, 6-foot-5 senior guard Ethan Roberts, who has missed the last two games due to a concussion. Roberts will not be able to play in the NCAA Tournament. Penn managed to knock off Yale in overtime thanks to a career-high 44 points from junior forward T.J. Power, a former five-star recruit who previously played for Duke and Virginia, but he is questionable in this game due to an illness. That’s a huge problem going up against an Illinois squad that has lots of talent but badly needs to get back on track after losing five of their final nine games, including to Wisconsin in overtime at the Big Ten tournament. The Illini rank No. 2 on KenPom in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 3 in offensive rebound percentage, but they’re last in the country in steals percentage. They want to defend without fouling. This is a big point spread so I’d be concerned about a backdoor cover, but given Roberts’ absence and Power’s uncertain status, the Illini’s high-scoring style and the fact that Illinois should be highly motivated, I’ll take the Illini to win and cover.
No. 8 Georgia vs. No. 9 Saint Louis
Seth’s Analysis
These are two of the most entertaining offenses in the country. Mike White’s Bulldogs rank 16th on KenPom in both offensive efficiency and tempo. Sophomore guard Jeremiah Wilkinson has had a great season, and 6-foot-9 sophomore forward Kanon Catchings had 32 points on 7 for 13 three-point shooting in the Bulldogs’ win over Alabama in their regular season finale. The concern for Georgia is that it’s 80th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 336th in defensive rebound percentage. Saint Louis also likes to play fast and ranks second nationally in three-point percentage (40.5), but the Billikens lost four of their last eight games, although the last one came by one point to Dayton in the Atlantic-10 tournament. Robbie Avila, aka Cream Abdul-Jabbar, is on his second stop with coach Josh Schertz (he came with Schertz from Indiana State), and they are finally playing in the NCAA Tournament together. The Billikens have a deep, balanced nine-man rotation and they share the ball extremely well. They also rank second nationally in offense and defensive effective field goal percentage. Saint Louis’ late season slide came largely because it did a lousy job taking care of the ball, but the Billikens have too many ways to win this one.
No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 14 Kennesaw State
Seth’s Analysis
We’ve been taking Gonzaga for granted for a while now, but this has to be the quietest 30-3 team in college basketball history. The fact that the Zags have been playing without one of their top two players, 6-foot-10 junior forward Braden Huff, since early January is even more impressive. The Bulldogs got here thanks largely to the dominant inside play of 6-foot-9 senior forward Graham Ike, who averaged 19.7 points, 8.2 rebounds and 2.4 assists, but they also benefited from the improvement of two freshmen, point guard Mario Saint-Supery and 6-foot-7 wing Davis Fogle, as well as All-Glue selection Jaylen Warley. Kennesaw State did well to win the Conference USA tournament as a No. 6 seed, but the Owls lost five of their final nine games after losing Simeon Cottle, the league’s preseason player of the year, to a point shaving scandal. That left them heavily dependent on two freshmen guards, Trey Simpson and Amir Taylor. This does not strike me as a team that’s going to throw a scare into Gonzaga.
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 Idaho
Seth’s Analysis
All props to Idaho for making its first NCAA Tournament since 1990 after being picked to finish fourth in the Big Sky in the preseason, but the Vandals are getting the worst of both worlds. Not only do they have to play a superior team in Houston, but the Cougars will be in a bad mood after falling short against Arizona in the Big 12 tourament final. The big difference in that game was at the foul line, where the Wildcats outscored Houston 23-10. That has been a cause of concern for Houston all season (the Cougars are 352nd on KenPom in offensive free throw rate and 286th in defensive free throw rate), but they still rank fifth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and 13th in offensive efficiency. They also have one of the top perimeter trios in America in freshman Kingston Flemings and seniors Emanuel Sharp and Milos Uzan. Idaho will try to counter with tktk freshman 6-foot-7 freshman forward Jackson Rasumussen, who was named the Big Sky’s Freshman of the Year, but it won’t be enough to make this game truly competitive.
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