Welcome to another edition of the Hoops HQ Fast Break, where we ask our tandem of experts a series of questions about the college basketball world. Andy Katz and Seth Davis are locked and loaded with their hot takes. Lace ’em up and let’s roll.
Seth Davis: A couple of really interesting results last week and then over the weekend, the big UConn vs. St. John’s game, which we both talked about last week. We both thought UConn could win the game. I don’t think either of us thought they were going to win by more than 30. St. John’s was absolutely embarrassed. And then St. John’s does the same thing to Villanova, Florida took a statement win over Arkansas at home, Arizona obliterated Kansas at home, Michigan won at Illinois and Duke destroyed Virginia. So, where do you see the top tier of teams in college basketball right now? Who would be on your championship tier?
Andy Katz: Well, let me just add this, and that is we all love Cinderella. We all love upsets. And I think we’re going to see carnage for a lot of teams that are in tiers sort of two and below. But I don’t see that happening in the top tier. To me, in the top tier, there are five teams, not four, and I really believe that we’re going to get a Final Four of that five. Maybe that sounds like Mr. Chalk, but I think there’s going to be just a lot of upsets and results that go against some of these brand names early, but not the five of Duke, Michigan, Arizona, UConn, and Florida.
Those five over the last couple of weeks have really separated themselves. I know UConn lost to Creighton. And that was a bit of an anomaly. What they did to St. John’s, that’s the UConn that I think we will see going forward here. What Florida did to Arkansas, what Michigan did at Illinois. I mean, that was as good a victory as Michigan has had all season. What Arizona did in their couple games without Koa Peat, and then of course what Duke has done, not just to Michigan, but then to their closest rival in the ACC this season in Virginia. All incredibly impressive. And I hope people aren’t discouraged by this.
But, a couple of years ago, I wanted to see UConn vs. Purdue. To me, those were the two best teams. You had Zach Edey, Player of the Year. I wanted to see UConn and Purdue. Those were the two teams. You had Donovan Clingan from UConn going against Zach Edey. That was the matchup and we got it. So yes, I want to see in the Final Four, some combination of those five and give me all sorts of upsets before that.
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Seth Davis: I think it’s all a fair point, I agree with the strength of the top. I’ll say first of all, I do not put UConn in quite the same company as those other four. I’m not sure if I’m quite ready to put Florida there yet. Obviously they’ve been very impressive. You know, I’m still trying to figure out how they lost at home to Auburn, which right now Auburn’s clinging to so hard in terms of trying to be a bubble team. I think we have a clear big three, Duke, Michigan, Arizona. There’s no doubt about that.
In my mind, Florida is definitely rising fast, I think UConn is a cut below. I would put UConn much more in the mix with Illinois. I still think that Houston is going to be there, Iowa State, Michigan State is playing better right now. I don’t put Purdue in that class. Maybe that’s maybe that’s your second tier. So, and we’ll talk about this with Jay Bilas, by the way, but I am concerned that we could have another situation in the NCAA Tournament where you don’t have those Cinderella upsets, which doesn’t really bother me, but I don’t like people trying to turn that into a narrative that somehow NIL and the transfer portal have caused that to happen. I just think we have a year where we have a lot of strength at the top. I still think it’s Duke, Michigan and Arizona.
Andy Katz: Well, but let me ask you this, does it fit your narrative of Cinderella, if we have Troy beat Wisconsin, or Liberty take down, you name it, Texas Tech, Purdue. I mean, those are still Cinderella upsets. They just may not get to the Final Four.
Seth Davis: No, for sure, I agree. But, we didn’t have it last year is what I’m saying. And I don’t like narratives, but I’m just saying the main point is I still see a big three. I would call Florida a 3-A. So, it’s just interesting watching this all play out.
Seth Davis: You mentioned Texas Tech, I think we need to throw some flowers at Grant McCasland who we talked about last week. Jon Scheyer being your pick for National Coach of the Year, I’m still a little partial to Fred Hoiberg. But, what Grant McCasland is doing with Texas Tech, let’s remind everybody: on the midseason bracket reveal from the selection committee, Keith Gill, the chairman of the committee said they knocked Texas Tech down a seed line because JT Toppin got hurt, which seemed reasonable at the time.
Texas Tech beat Kansas State and Cincinnati, they went into Iowa State and dominated the Cyclones in Hilton Coliseum. Christian Anderson had 31 points in the win over Kansas State, but they had a much more balanced attack there.
So, the fact that they’re still winning, remember they came back to beat Duke when they were having all kinds of injuries and foul trouble. What are your thoughts on Texas Tech and the job Grant McCasland’s doing?
Andy Katz: Yeah, I saw them in December and I was wowed by Christian Anderson. Remember Christian Anderson was part of the German national team in the FIBA tournament, they lost the gold medal game to the US this past summer, so he’s been on the scene flying a little under the radar, but he’s one of the best lead guards in the country without question. They just don’t get the national pub that they deserve.
But yes, there’s no question that he’s done an unbelievable job and should be in consideration for National Coach of the Year. And this is a great point for the committee that, you know, they’ve earned back that top four line seed, maybe a three, maybe they could get through two, who knows, if they just keep winning. But, the good news for Texas Tech is they had time and games ahead of them to prove to the committee, hey, we’re not just one guy here, even though he’s, you know, the reigning Big 12 Player of the Year.
Seth Davis: Yeah, I agree. I think when they get into that committee room, I don’t think committees should discuss Toppin at all because they’ve proven that they’re just as good without him in terms of the results, and that’s what they didn’t have at the bracket reveal.
Seth Davis: Interesting news broke late on Sunday night. USC announced that Chad Baker-Mazara is not going to be part of the program. Now, Baker-Mazara is a character, well-known guy. I want to say he’s 26 years old, started his career at Duquesne, spent a year in junior college, went to San Diego State, academic casualty at San Diego State, lost another year, played two seasons at Auburn and then a fifth year at USC.
So, that’s why he’s as old as he is because he spent a couple of years outside Division I. He’s always been, he’s a very, very talented player, but he’s always been a volatile personality, technical foul type of kid. He had an injury issue apparently in their game against Nebraska, he came out of the game, sat away from the bench. The optics of that didn’t look good, not least because USC’s on the bubble trying to get into the tournament and they got embarrassed at home against Nebraska.
What’s your take on this situation with Baker-Mazara and how it impacts USC’s ability to play its way back onto the right side of the bubble?
Andy Katz: You know, he was with USC in Maui and he kind of pulled that stunt, and I actually thoroughly enjoyed talking to him, I want to put that out there. But yeah, he did this in one of the games in Maui and it was the game that Rodney Rice got hurt. He sort of just disappeared for a good stretch of the first half at the end of the bench and no one quite knew why he sort of just took himself out. Then, Rodney Rice gets hurt, injures his shoulder and at halftime. Eric Musselman told me after that he’d gone in and said, “Hey, we need you, Rice is hurt,” then Chad came out and was great in the second half, he ends up being the MVP of the Invitational. They lose Rice for the season, Elijah Rinas can’t come back till almost February, and then Chad gets hurt.
So, they’ve never been in sync, but they have needed his scoring and he is an unbelievable scorer. And now without him, they’re not going to make the NCAA Tournament unless they go on some miraculous run. It’s very disappointing what’s happened, but I could see how Eric Musselman and the entire staff has sort of at this point said, you know what, we just can’t have these distractions anymore.
Seth Davis: So first of all, for the last week in the regular season, they’re playing at Washington on Wednesday. That’s actually a Quad 1 game, great opportunity for a Quad 1 win. Then they finish with UCLA at home, that would be a Quad 2 game. They are as of now 2-8 in Quad 1, 7-2 in Quad 2. They are right on the knife’s edge of the bubble. They went twice this week and I think they’re on the right side of the bubble going into the Big Ten Tournament. I know he’s old for a college basketball player but he’s still a kid, you know, whatever his background might be.
But, I do think coaches need to be careful who they’re bringing into their program. Chad Baker-Mazara is a very talented player, but he does have a history of, let’s say, mercurial, unpredictable behavior and he’s very expensive. I think they paid him north of $2 million to come. So, I just think it’s hard to build a program on the fly in a transactional environment with players like this. I think you’re better off taking someone who’s not as talented, not as expensive, but is helpful to your culture.
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And so it’s unfortunate that all the injuries that USC has had, we mentioned Rodney Rice. I mean, if you have Rice, Arenas and Chad Baker-Mazara healthy all the way through, that’s a top 25 team. But you know, a lot of teams have to deal with injuries and I just think, again, I’m trying to be careful about, you know, sort of a personal attack on the player. But the reality is, I think, coaches too often are willing to look past things and put up with certain things because they’re pursuing “talent,” and in a transactional environment, I think it’s a risk. In this case, that risk has not paid off.
Alright, let’s close with our parting shots. Andy Katz, fire away.
Andy Katz: I got two from the Big Ten. First off, Pryce Sandfort, the transfer from Iowa at Nebraska. Sandfort is a candidate for Big Ten Player of the Year, he’s been that good for the Huskers. He’s right there with Yaxel Lendeborg from Michigan and Keaton Wagler from Illinois. Point No. 2, flowers to Nick Martinelli, what an unbelievable career he has had at Northwestern. On his own bobblehead day, Nick Martinelli, with a little push shot, got the buzzer beater to beat Oregon. What a great career at Northwestern.
Seth Davis: You’re a Northwestern dad. Can you get me one of those bobbleheads? I got to get a Nick Martinelli bobblehead. I mean, what am I doing? I’ll put it up. I’ll put it right next to my Sister Jean bobblehead.
On Saturday night, Saint Mary’s beat Gonzaga in Moraga. It’s the last regular season meeting between those two teams as conference teams. They have had one of the great all-time conference series in the West Coast Conference. Next season, Gonzaga is going to the PAC 12. I know Mark Few is a Hoops HQ viewer. Mark, you gotta play Saint Mary’s every year. We need a home and home series in perpetuity and no neutral-site conference. You gotta go to Moraga and in the kennel year after year. I make the rules.
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