Bracketology 2026: Men’s NCAA Tournament Projections

When it comes to bad losses this week, Seton Hall takes the cake there. The Pirates lost at home to DePaul, putting their quest for an at-large bid in serious jeopardy. Can they recover from this? Well, there’s a glimmer of hope, but the chances are suddenly very slim. Auburn is the other bubble team that suffered a loss this week. The Tigers lost at Mississippi State on Wednesday and are now 14-12 overall. That record is getting way too close to the .500 mark. No team has ever received an at-large bid while being just one game over .500, so I’d advise the Tigers to start winning some games or they’ll be on the outside looking in very soon.

Since today is the day the selection committee announces its top 16 teams, I wanted to share my top 16 in order:

1: Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Houston

2: Iowa State, UConn, Illinois, Purdue

3: Florida, Kansas, Nebraska, Gonzaga

4: Alabama, Virginia, Vanderbilt, Michigan State

Here are some thoughts regarding today’s bracket:

• After Friday night’s loss at Purdue, Indiana is now just 2-9 against Quad 1 opponents and 4-10 versus Quad 1 and Quad 2. The Hoosiers have three home games left against Northwestern, Michigan State and Minnesota. If they are able to win all three games, I do believe they will get an at-large bid. Also, don’t be surprised if Indiana is one of the last four teams in the field, but isn’t playing in Dayton. The Hoosiers have strong predictive metrics for a bubble team and would be seeded accordingly.
• Auburn dropped to 14-12 overall after losing at Mississippi State on Wednesday. The Tigers are getting way to close for comfort with that overall record and we’ve only seen two teams ever receive an at-large bid while only being two games over .500. Auburn doesn’t need quality wins, it just needs wins. One of the Tigers losses came against Alabama when Charles Bediako played. The selection committee is going to take that into account since Bediako was ruled ineligible and I think that leaves open the possibility of Auburn getting an at-large bid while only being two games over .500.
• VCU missed out on a golden opportunity on Friday night as it was unable to win at Saint Louis. This was the last significant opportunity on the Rams schedule to have a realistic shot of receiving an at-large bid. In all likelihood, VCU is going to need to win the Atlantic 10 Tournament in order to play in the NCAA Tournament.
• The worst part of college basketball, and just sports in general, is injuries. There are three teams that have been hit by the injury bug to a top player. Texas Tech (JT Toppin), North Carolina (Caleb Wilson) and BYU (Richie Saunders) each lost a star player and now we need to figure out how they will get seeded. In North Carolina’s case, it seems like Caleb Wilson will be back prior to the NCAA Tournament. With regards to Texas Tech and BYU, Toppin and Saunders injury are both season-ending. How these teams play down the stretch will definitely have an impact on how each team is seeded.
• UConn fell off the No. 1 seed line after losing at home to Creighton on Wednesday. In the end, it may not be the worst thing in the world for the Huskies. They have a much better chance of playing in the East Region as a No. 2 seed than they did if they were a No. 1 seed. Reason being is Duke. Duke will pretty much be locked in to the East Region if it beats Michigan today. And even if the Blue Devils don’t upend the Wolverines, they are still in a good spot to be in that region anyway.

Last 4 Byes

Saint Mary’s, Missouri, Auburn, USC

Last 4 In

Indiana, TCU, Santa Clara, UCLA

First 4 Out

New Mexico, Ohio State, California, VCU

Next 4 Out

Virginia Tech, San Diego State, Seton Hall, West Virginia

Bracketology

16 Howard Bison

16 Long Island Sharks

11 Indiana Hoosiers

11 Santa Clara Broncos

16 NJIT Highlanders

16 Bethune-Cookman Wildcats

11 UCLA Bruins

11 TCU Horned Frogs

Midwest (Chicago)

Philadelphia

1 Michigan Wolverines

16 Merrimack Warriors

8 Clemson Tigers

9 Texas Longhorns

Buffalo

5 Arkansas Razorbacks

12 South Florida Bulls

4 Virginia Cavaliers

13 Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Tampa

6 Villanova Wildcats

11 UCLA Bruins / TCU Horned Frogs

3 Nebraska Cornhuskers

14 North Dakota State Bison

Oklahoma City

7 NC State Wolfpack

10 Auburn Tigers

2 Iowa State Cyclones

15 Navy Midshipmen

South (Houston)

Oklahoma City

1 Houston Cougars

16 UT Martin Skyhawks

8 Wisconsin Badgers

9 SMU Mustangs

Greenville

5 Texas Tech Red Raiders

12 Belmont Bruins

4 Alabama Crimson Tide

13 Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks

Tampa

6 North Carolina Tar Heels

11 Indiana Hoosiers / Santa Clara Broncos

3 Florida Gators

14 East Tennessee State Buccaneers

St. Louis

7 Saint Louis Billikens

10 Georgia Bulldogs

2 Illinois Fighting Illini

15 Troy Trojans

West (San Jose)

San Diego

1 Arizona Wildcats

16 Howard Bison / Long Island Sharks

8 Miami Hurricanes

9 Texas A&M Aggies

San Diego

5 Tennessee Volunteers

12 Yale Bulldogs

4 Michigan State Spartans

13 High Point Panthers

Buffalo

6 Louisville Cardinals

11 Miami Ohio Red Hawks

3 Kansas Jayhawks

14 Austin Peay Governors

St. Louis

7 Utah State Aggies

10 Missouri Tigers

2 Purdue Boilermakers

15 Portland State Vikings

East (Washington, DC)

Greenville

1 Duke Blue Devils

16 Bethune-Cookman Wildcats / NJIT Highlanders

8 Iowa Hawkeyes

9 UCF Knights

Portland

5 St. John's Red Storm

12 Liberty Flames

4 Vanderbilt Commodores

13 UNC Wilmington Seahawks

Portland

6 BYU Cougars

11 USC Trojans

3 Gonzaga Bulldogs

14 California Baptist Lancers

Philadelphia

7 Kentucky Wildcats

10 Saint Mary's Gaels

2 UConn Huskies

15 Wright State Raiders

Bids by Conference

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