With just a few weeks left in the 2025-26 college basketball season, “Bracketology” has become a big storyline in the sport. And yes, figuring out which of those teams on the bubble has a shot at making the NCAA Tournament is important. But one question I’d like to ask is: Which of those teams has the best shot at making a run if they were to get into the field?
For this latest top 10 article, I’ll be looking at the top 10 teams from the bubble most likely to make the Sweet Sixteen if they were to get an invitation to the Big Dance.
To qualify for this list, teams must be projected as a No. 8-11 seed, or currently outside the bubble.
1. Wisconsin Badgers
Record: 18-7 (10-4 Big Ten)
Key players
- Nick Boyd: 20.6 points, 3.7 assists
- John Blackwell: 19 points, 5.0 rebounds
- Nolan Winter: 13.7 points, 9.0 rebounds
The Badgers have shown the ability to beat top teams this season, landing wins over Michigan and Michigan State, and they’re one of the most potent teams in the nation, having six games with 90-plus points in Big Ten play. The overreliance on their star guard duo has posed issues at times, but when Boyd and Blackwell are playing well, Wisconsin is capable of beating anyone.
2. Texas Longhorns
Record: 16-9 (7-5 SEC)
Key players
- Dailyn Swain: 17.6 points, 7.3 rebounds, 3.4 assists
- Matas Vokietatis: 15.4 points, 6.9 rebounds
Swain, a 6-foot-7 junior wing, has emerged as a star of late, averaging more than 20 points per game in SEC play. But what has made the Longhorns suddenly dangerous is 6-foot-5 senior guard Tramon Mark (13.2 points per game) and 6-foot-2 senior guard Jordan Pope (12.6 points per game) becoming consistent lead guards. Texas has a starting lineup capable of competing with the top teams.
3. SMU Mustangs
Record: 17-8 (6-6 ACC)
Key players
- Kevin Miller: 18.9 points, 6.8 assists
- Jaron Pierre: 17.4 points
Similar to Wisconsin, SMU is one of the best offensive units in the nation, ranking in the top 20 overall at 86.2 points per game. They’re one of a few teams with five players averaging in double figures, while 6-foot-10 freshman forward Jaden Toombs (8.1 points per game) has given them a nice impact since recovering from an early wrist injury. Compared to last year, this group has been much more competitive against the top teams and could be a dangerous out for a top seed.
4. Miami Hurricanes
Record: 20-5 (9-3 ACC)
Key players
- Malik Reneau: 20.1 points, 6.6 rebounds
- Tre Donaldson: 15.8 points, 6.0 assists
First-year head coach Jai Lucas has done wonders with the Hurricanes, with former Big Ten players performing like all-conference stars. In a year filled with quality frontcourt players, Miami has one of its own in 6-foot-9 senior forward Reneau. This team can match up well against several top teams, making them a true upset candidate in the Round of 32.
5. San Diego State Aztecs
Record: 18-6 (12-2 Mountain West)
Key players
- Reese Dixon-Waters: 12.7 points, 3.6 rebounds
- Miles Byrd: 10.3 points, 2.7 assists
After a rough nonconference campaign, the Aztecs seem to have found their footing, tied with Utah State at the top of the Mountain West. What’s even more impressive is that they’ve been without two starters for a while, including last season’s Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year, Magoon Gwath (9.4 points per game), who has been dealing with a hip injury. If San Diego State can get its impact players back near 100-percent health and make the Big Dance, they could be a dangerous double-digit seed.
6. UCLA Bruins
Record: 17-8 (9-5 Big Ten)
Key players
- Tyler Bilodeau: 17.9 points, 5.6 rebounds
- Donovan Dent: 13.6 points, 7.0 assists
There have been moments when the Bruins have looked capable of beating top teams, including an upset win over Purdue early in Big Ten play. Dent, a 6-foot-2 senior guard and former Mountain West Player of the Year, isn’t the same kind of pure scorer he was a year ago but has become one of the top passers in the country. With five double-digit scorers and a balanced offensive approach, don’t overlook Mick Cronin’s roster in the Big Dance.
7. VCU Rams
Record: 20-6 (11-2 A-10)
Key players
- Terrence Hill: 14.7 points, 2.7 assists
- Lazar Djokovic: 13.7 points, 5.8 rebounds
Understandably, most of the national attention on the Atlantic 10 is on Saint Louis, but VCU, which is on the bubble, also has a roster capable of doing damage in March. They’re a balanced unit, with eight players averaging at least five points per game, with 6-foot-3 sophomore guard Hill leading the Rams in scoring while mostly coming off the bench.
8. TCU Horned Frogs
Record: 16-9 (6-6 Big 12)
Key players
- David Punch: 14.3 points, 6.9 rebounds
- Xavier Edmonds: 12.4 points, 6.0 rebounds
TCU has been close to several big upsets this season, putting scares into Michigan, Kansas and Arizona. The good news for the Frogs is that a recent three-game win streak has them firmly on the bubble, including a massive win over Iowa State. Despite many inconsistencies, the Frogs have shown several times that they’re capable of beating top teams.
9. Indiana Hoosiers
Record: 17-9 (8-7 Big Ten)
Key players
- Lamar Wilkerson: 21.2 points
- Tucker DeVries: 13.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, 3.2 assists
A recent stretch of four wins in six games, including victories over Purdue and UCLA, has the Hoosiers on the right side of the bubble. What makes them dangerous is Wilkerson, a 6-foot-4 senior guard with four games of 30-plus points, including 41 in a win over Oregon. In a tournament filled with stars who can go off, Wilkerson is capable of single-handedly winning a game for Indiana.
10. Santa Clara Broncos
Record: 22-6 (13-2 WCC)
Key players
- Christian Hammond: 16.4 points, 2.4 assists
- Allen Graves: 11.4 points, 6.9 rebounds
Close losses to Saint Louis and Quad 4 landmine Loyola Chicago could ultimately be the reason why the Broncos miss the dance after failing to beat Gonzaga last weekend. But if they get in, Santa Clara could be dangerous. Not only do they have a lead guard in 6-foot-4 junior Hammond, they also have a star redshirt freshman in Allen Graves, a 6-foot-8 forward who dropped 30 points in a win over Washington State and is the kind of future pro who could push the Broncos past the opening weekend.
Meet your guide
